Freshwater Strategy calls it right twice in one night, ‘Voice’ and NZ General Election


Highly accurate at two major elections

Freshwater Strategy conducted polling ahead of the Voice referendum in Australia, and ahead of the 2023 New Zealand General Election.

Polling results for both elections, held on 14th October 2023, were highly accurate, well within the margin of error for each poll.

Results for the AFR/Freshwater Strategy poll on the ‘Voice’, conducted on 22-24 September, were published in the AFR here.

Results for The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll on the 2023 New Zealand General Election, conducted on 28-30 August, were published in The Post here.


The Voice Polling

In the run up to the ‘Voice’ the final AFR/Freshwater Strategy Poll showed support for a Yes vote at just 33 per cent, a fall of 15 percentage points since May, while the No vote was 50 per cent support and 17 per cent are undecided.

When the undecideds were excluded, the No vote was just over 60 per cent and the Yes vote just below 40 per cent.

At 75% of the votes counted the ‘Yes’ support stands at 40%, almost precisely matching the final AFR/Freshwater Strategy Poll.

You can read the full results and other insights in the AFR here.


Polling ahead of the 2023 NZ General Election

The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll gave National a strong lead on 36%. While Prime Minster Chris Hipkins’ Labour Party reported a 26% vote share, down 24 points since the last election.

The poll placed the Greens on 12%, ACT on 11%, and Te Pāti Māori on 3%.

NZ First inched past the threshold required to enter Parliament without an electorate seat, on 6%.

The poll result correctly identified that National and ACT were on course to require support from NZ First, or elsewhere, as a National-ACT bloc would deliver a hung Parliament.

The National-ACT bloc was estimated at 60 seats, to the left’s 53 (Labour-Green-TPM).

NZ First was estimated to take either seven or eight seats.

With nearly all the votes counted, the National-ACT bloc is estimated to attain approximately 60 seats, almost precisely matching the final The Post/Freshwater Strategy Poll.

You can read the full results published in The Post here.


*this post may be updated to include final results from pollsters and elections, when all votes are counted

Deploying empirical strategies, we shape opinion, manage risk, and identify opportunities in shifting environments to help our clients gain a competitive advantage in commercial and political spheres.

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