Freshwater Strategy has partnered with The Australian Financial Review to publish exclusive polling in three key New South Wales seats, Pittwater, Riverstone and Goulburn, ahead of the election on 25 March 2023.

The results suggest that Teal Independents may struggle to get up in many target Northern Beaches seats. With a strong result in Riverstone, but less ground made up in Goulburn, the polls also suggest that Labor is on course to form a minority government at the upcoming NSW state election, unless they can begin to improve their vote position in key ‘Southern corridor’ seats like Goulburn in the remaining weeks of the campaign.

The Pittwater, Riverstone and Goulburn polls were reported by The Australian Financial Review separately as part of their ongoing coverage of the 2023 New South Wales state election.

Voter priorities

The results show divergent priorities of voters across seats, with rising costs of living the key issue of concern among voters in Riverstone and Goulburn. Action on climate change and the environment is a joint top priority for voters in Pittwater, along with rising prices.

While climate change is a top priority in Pittwater, in Riverstone and Goulburn it is considered to be a lower order priority, behind concerns about improving health and aged care.

Primary vote intentions

At the time of conducting the polling fieldwork, although the main candidates in contention for all three seats were known, the full and final candidate lists were not published and therefore they may not be representative of the final contest.

Given that One Nation had declared their intention to run in all 93 seats, later reducing this down to 22 seats, One Nation have been prompted in both Goulburn and Riverstone polls.

The polling results suggest that Labor's Primary vote is ahead of the Liberals in Riverstone, while Liberal candidates remain ahead of Labor and Independent challengers in Goulburn and Pittwater.

Two party/candidate preferred

The polls, conducted exclusively for The Australian Financial Review (also revealed at the GovConnex/Freshwater Strategy 2023 NSW pre-election briefing on 27th February) show that Liberal candidate, Rory Amon, is narrowly ahead of challenging 'Teal' independent candidate, Jacqui Scrubi, in Pittwater.

The polling also shows that Labor's Warren Kirby is set to take Riverstone from the Liberals, leading by 4pts against freshman Liberal candidate Mohit Kumar.

Finally, the polling shows the contest in Goulburn is on a knife-edge, with Liberal incumbent candidate Wendy Tuckerman, ahead by the narrowest of margins against Labor's Michael Pilbrow. This critical seat could be the difference between Labor forming a minority or majority government on 25 March.

Preferred Premier

Dominic Perrottet leads Chris Minns as the preferred Premier of voters in the seats of Pittwater and Riverstone, however, in Goulburn Minns is neck and neck with Perrottet.