Freshwater Strategy’s comprehensive dashboard for Australian voter insights, including outlook measures, national issue agenda and who voters feel are best to manage, support for various energy sources, as well as leader approval ratings.
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Most Australians express concern about the country's trajectory, with heightened pessimism about the national direction among minor party supporters.
Nearly a half of voters say they feel the national economy will get worse over the next year.
1 in 3 voters remain wary about their personal financial futures, with older voters more likely to feel pessimistic about their future household finances than younger groups.
This overall pessimism places Freshwater Strategy's Outlook Index at -14, a 3.6pt increase on December.
Australian voters continue to prioritise the rising cost of living as the top priority for the Federal government to address, followed by housing concerns, managing the economy, and healthcare.
Among voters, Albanese & Labor lead as best to respond to concerns related to welfare & benefits, the environment & climate change, and family & community.
Among voters, Dutton & the Coalition lead as best to respond to concerns related to immigration, economic management, national security, crime, fiscal management, and cost of living.
There remain several areas with no clear lead for either party.
Solar energy remains the most popular amongst voters, followed by gas and wind. The decline in the proportion of supporters for renewables, has stagnated.
Coal sees significant division based on political and generational lines, with older generations and right-of-centre voters showing more support.
There's a noticeable gender gap in attitudes toward nuclear and hydrogen, with women generally more opposed.
Geographically, support for coal is notably higher in NSW and Qld compared to other states, where there's broader support for renewables.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has seen a steady decrease in support since December 2022, which has brought him closer to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in the polls.
Dutton has gained an advantage in several key demographic groups such as mid-to-older voters, males, homeowners, and Queenslanders.
Alongside this, both Albanese and Labor's overall approval ratings have dropped sharply. Half of voters now view him unfavourably, slightly more than for Dutton.
While the decline in Albanese's approval ratings had stabilised in 2024, the Prime Minister's decline in favourability has resumed since April.
In the latest Poll of Polls by Freshwater Strategy, the Labor party’s two-party-preferred (TPP) vote has decreased to 49.5%, a drop from the 52.1% received in the May 2022 Federal Election.
According to Freshwater’s Swingometer, this represents a national swing of 2.7% towards the Coalition. Swings are rarely uniform, but if there was a uniform swing, this would result in a minority Labor government with 71 seats.
With the next Federal election just one year away, and four state and territory elections on the horizon, keep track as we count down the days with Freshwater Strategy's Election Watch.
Latest Polling Data: January 2025
Polling Data: Polling data used within the Data Stream: Australia dashboard are sourced from the Australian Financial Review / Freshwater Strategy Monthly Federal Poll. For each poll, Freshwater Strategy interviewed ~ n=1000 eligible voters in Australia, aged 18+ online. The Margin of Error for each poll is ~ +/- 3% and data are weighted to be respresentative of Australian voters. For field dates and specific polling methodology for each individual poll, please get in touch.
Outlook Index: The Freshwater Strategy Outlook Index is derived from five key survey questions including the country, economic, and household direction questions. For further details, the methodology can be found here.
Poll of Polls: The Freshwater Strategy Poll of Polls compiles data from multiple sources to track the Federal Labor Party's two-party-preferred (TPP) vote over time. It uses a third-order polynomial trendline to estimate the overall trend in the polls.
Swingometer: The Freshwater Strategy Swingometer uses the latest estimates from the Poll of Polls to gauge the current national swing towards or against the Federal Labor Party based on a TPP-basis. It applies this swing uniformly to the electorate-level margins from the 2022 Federal Election to project how many seats each party could win if a uniform swing occurred. It’s important to note however, that swings in actual elections are rarely uniform.
Other: While most data on the dashboard are displayed as percentages or NET values, certain statistical methods have been employed to simplify and categorise the information. This includes using Latent Class Analysis (LCA) to segment support for different energy sources and Correspondence Analysis to visualise relationships between various categories, such as energy support and regions or issues and the 2022 party vote.
Ownership and License: All data and content displayed on this dashboard are owned by Freshwater Partners Pty Ltd and published under license. Users are granted a limited, non-exclusive license to access and use the data solely for informational, non-commercial purposes. This license is contingent upon compliance with these terms.
Responsible Use: Users agree to handle the data in a responsible and ethical manner. Any use of the data in a misleading, defamatory, or otherwise harmful way is strictly prohibited.
Attribution: Users must provide clear and conspicuous credit to Freshwater Partners Pty Ltd when displaying or distributing the data. This includes, but is not limited to, publications, presentations, and reports.
Limitation of Liability: Freshwater Partners Pty Ltd shall not be liable for any claims, damages, or other liabilities arising from the use of the data, including without limitation, direct, indirect, incidental, punitive, and consequential damages.
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