Freshwater Strategy’s comprehensive dashboard for Australian voter insights, including outlook measures, national issue agenda and who voters feel are best to manage, support for various energy sources, as well as leader approval ratings.
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Most Australians express concern about the country's trajectory, with heightened pessimism about the national direction among minor party supporters.
A half of voters say they feel the national economy will get worse over the next year.
A substantial proportion of voters remain wary about their personal financial futures, with older voters more likely to feel pessimistic about their future household finances than younger groups.
Voters continue to think that Australia is heading in the wrong direction
NET direction
This pessimism is most prominent amongst those who did not vote for a major party at the last election
A half of voters expect that the economy will have worsened in a year from now
And 2 in 5 voters think their household will be worse off financially in a year from now
Breaking this down by age groups demonstrates a generational divide between young and old
Australian voters continue to prioritise the rising cost of living as the top priority for the Federal government to address, followed by housing concerns, healthcare, and managing the economy.
Among voters, Albanese & Labor lead as best to respond to concerns related to welfare & benefits and the environment & climate change.
Among voters, Dutton & the Coalition lead as best to respond to concerns related to immigration, economic management, national security, crime, fiscal management, and cost of living.
There remain several areas with no clear lead for either party.
Cost of living remains the top concern that voters want the federal government to address
In fact, 3 in 4 voters place cost of living in their top 3 issues, followed by housing and health services
When pressed, cost of living remains the single most important issue across all voter types
Voters are divided on certain issues, however: more Coalition voters
prioritise the economy, while more Labor & Other voters prioritise climate change
How to Read: the closer that an
issue
and
party
are to each other, the greater the priority those voters have for that issue
Voters have shifted their perceptions away from Labor as best to manage several key issues
Voters see Labor as best to manage social issues, including welfare and climate change
Whereas they view the Coalition as best to manage economic and security issues, such as tax and crime
The majority of traditional Labor strengths remain in the contest space, including healthcare and education
Solar energy remains the most popular amongst voters, followed by gas and wind. The decline in the proportion of supporters for renewables, has stagnated.
Coal sees significant division based on political and generational lines, with older generations and right-of-centre voters showing more support.
There's a noticeable gender gap in attitudes toward nuclear and hydrogen, with women generally more opposed.
Geographically, support for coal is notably higher in NSW and Qld compared to other states, where there's broader support for renewables.
Solar remains the most supported energy source, followed by gas and wind (onshore & offshore)
Breaking this down by segment, shows a stabilised
decline in the proportion
of supporters for
renewables
% Renewable,
Non-Renewable,
&
Neutral/Unsure
supporters
This decline was primarily driven by the decline in support of onshore and offshore wind
Younger and Victorian voters more strongly support renewables
How to Read: the closer that an
energy source
and
demographic variable
are to each other, the greater NET support those two groups have
Support for coal has the greatest divide amongst 2022 voter groups, with Coalition voters more likely to support
Boomers and Post-War generations are more likely to support nuclear and coal than their younger counterparts
Females are more likely to oppose nuclear, hydrogen, and coal than males
While gender divide is widening for nuclear NET support, it remains relatively stable for other sources
NSW and Qld maintains NET support for coal, while other states tend to oppose it
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has seen a steady decrease in support since December 2022, which has brought him closer to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in the polls.
Dutton has gained an advantage in several key demographic groups such as mid-to-older voters, males, homeowners, andd Queenslanders.
Alongside this, both Albanese and Labor's overall approval ratings have dropped sharply. Half of voters now view him unfavourably, slightly more than for Dutton.
While the decline in Albanese's approval ratings had stabilised in 2024, the Prime Minister's decline in favourability has resumed since April.
Since December 2022, Albanese has seen a gradual decline in support as
preferred PM
% Albanese,
Dutton, or
Neither/Unsure as PPM
This decline in support has reduced the gap between Albanese and Dutton across most demographic groups
Dutton has now pulled ahead of Albanese in several groups, including 55+yo, employers, and homeowners
The decline in Albanese's approval ratings has been in line with the decline in the Labor Party's favourability
NET approval over time
Nearly 1 in 2 voters view Albanese unfavourably, compared with 2 in 5 for Dutton
This decline, however, has steadied in 2024, with Albanese sitting on a NET approval of -14
Compared with other politicians and parties, Albanese's initial decline in populatity was significant
In the latest Poll of Polls by Freshwater Strategy, the Labor party’s two-party-preferred (TPP) vote has decreased to 49.6%, a drop from the 52.1% received in the May 2022 Federal Election.
According to Freshwater’s Swingometer, this represents a national swing of 2.5% towards the Coalition. Swings are rarely uniform, but if there was a uniform swing, this would result in a minority Labor government with 71 seats.
With the next Federal election just one year away, and four state and territory elections on the horizon, keep track as we count down the days with Freshwater Strategy's Election Watch.
Federal parliament voting intention
Labor TPP % trend over time
Federal parliament national swing
Labor TPP % swing
Outcome based on uniform swing from latest swingometer
Number of seats
Countdown until the next election
Number of days
Latest Polling Data: September 2024
Polling Data: Polling data used within the Data Stream: Australia dashboard are sourced from the Australian Financial Review / Freshwater Strategy Monthly Federal Poll. For each poll, Freshwater Strategy interviewed ~ n=1000 eligible voters in Australia, aged 18+ online. The Margin of Error for each poll is ~ +/- 3% and data are weighted to be respresentative of Australian voters. For field dates and specific polling methodology for each individual poll, please get in touch.
Poll of Polls: The Freshwater Strategy Poll of Polls compiles data from multiple sources to track the Federal Labor Party's two-party-preferred (TPP) vote over time. It uses a third-order polynomial trendline to estimate the overall trend in the polls.
Swingometer: The Freshwater Strategy Swingometer uses the latest estimates from the Poll of Polls to gauge the current national swing towards or against the Federal Labor Party based on a TPP-basis. It applies this swing uniformly to the electorate-level margins from the 2022 Federal Election to project how many seats each party could win if a uniform swing occurred. It’s important to note however, that swings in actual elections are rarely uniform.
Other: While most data on the dashboard are displayed as percentages or NET values, certain statistical methods have been employed to simplify and categorise the information. This includes using Latent Class Analysis (LCA) to segment support for different energy sources and Correspondence Analysis to visualise relationships between various categories, such as energy support and regions or issues and the 2022 party vote.
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