With a federal election expected to be called in mere weeks, it’s worth reflecting on the dramatic changes in politics that have occurred over the last term of government, as chronicled in Freshwater Strategy’s public polling. Freshwater’s first public poll was released in December 2022 for The Australian Financial Review, and February 2025 saw the publication of the 18th poll in this series. A comparison between these first and latest polls shows three key shifts in the Australian political landscape.
(1) End of a honeymoon
The dominant story in Australian politics has been the change in fortunes of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. In December 2022, the PM was in the proverbial ‘honeymoon period’; 48% of voters had a favourable view of him (+17 on a net basis). Over the next two-and-a-half years, his government faced various challenges (with the Voice Referendum marking a clear inflection point), such that by February 2025, only 35% had a favourable view of him, (-11 on a net basis).
| Anthony Albanese Net Favourability | |
| December 2022 | +17 |
| February 2025 | -11 |
(2) Coalition comeback
In December 2022, the result of the Coalition’s first seven months in opposition was a two-party preferred result of 46%, down 2pts on their earlier election loss in May. Fast forward to February 2025, and the Coalition have returned to a competitive position, polling a TPP of 52%. Interestingly, the shift over that time appeared slightly higher among women than among men; the Coalition’s primary vote went up 8pts among women, but fell 1pt among men (within the poll’s margin of error), and their TPP went up 5pts among women and 4pts among men.
| Measure | Gender | December 2022 | February 2025 |
| Coalition Primary Vote | Female | 34% | 42% |
| Coalition Primary Vote | Male | 41% | 40% |
| Coalition TPP | Female | 43% | 52% |
| Coalition TPP | Male | 49% | 53% |
(3) Cost of Living crisis
OK, this one isn’t a shift, but that’s precisely why it’s important. In December 2022, Australia was rocked by high inflation and still recovering from the Covid shock. When asked to name the single most important issue facing Australia, it was not surprising to see 43% name the cost & standard of living, dwarfing the next most popular category, housing & accommodation (10%). Yet three years on, the cost of living is just as dominant a concern, up a further 2pts at 45%, and set to dominate the upcoming election campaign.
| Single most important issue facing Australia | Feb-25 | Dec-22 |
| The cost & standard of living | 45% | 43% |
| Housing & accommodation | 11% | 10% |
| Managing the economy | 9% | 11% |
| The environment & climate change | 7% | 10% |
| Crime & social order | 7% | 2% |
| Health & social care | 5% | 10% |
| Immigration & asylum | 4% | 2% |
