Despite Albanese’s significant downfall in net approval over the last year, Labor has gained a 2 percentage point bump in primary vote, the latest The Australian Financial Review / Freshwater Strategy poll shows.  

“The survey results suggest the Coalition’s long-running attack on the prime minister painting him as ‘weak’  is cutting through, while Labor’s attempt to portray Mr Dutton as reckless, arrogant and nasty is not yet hitting home”, Ronald Mizen writes.  
 
Freshwater Strategy conducted the poll of 1,063 eligible voters in Australia between 17-19 January 2025.  

Primary Vote

Since December, there has been a slight exchange in Primary votes between the Greens, minor parties, and Labor. 

Two-Party Preferred

Labor’s TPP remains at 49%. The ALP are down approx. 3.13pts since 2022.

Swings are rarely uniform, but if it was at a Federal election, based on these results, Labor would be reduced form a notional 78 seats to 71, and the Coalition would jump from 57 seats to 67. The Greens would lose one seat, leaving them with 3 and the independents would be reduced from 9 seats to 7.

Preferred PM & Approval of Leaders

The proportion of voters who prefer Dutton as Prime Minister is unchanged since December, but those who prefer Albanese is down 3pts.

Albanese’s net approval is down 1pt to -18. A majority of voters continue to have an unfavourable view of the PM. Dutton’s net approval has declined by 1pt since November, now -4.

Voter Priorities

The priorities of voters remain relatively similar to previous months, with the rising cost of living a dominant concern for about three quarters of voters (73%).

42% of voters say that housing and accommodation is a top three priority for the Federal government to focus on, followed by health & social care (28%), and managing the economy (27%).

Financial Stress Experienced by Metro & Regional Voters

Whilst a majority of voters from both metro (58%) and regional areas say they could pay for an unexpected bill of $600 from their savings, regional voters are more likely to report being under extreme financial stress (24% vs 13%) and unable to find a way to pay for an unexpected $600 bill.

Management of Voter Priorities

The Coalition leads Labor as best to respond to three of the top five concerns of Australian voters, including; the cost of living, housing and accommodation (narrowly) and managing the economy.

Labor have leads on welfare and benefits (+15), health & social care (+7), and the environment (+7).

Read AFR political correspondent Ronald Mizen’s exclusive analysis of the poll here, and political editor Phil Coorey’s opinion piece here.

For frequently updated insights on key voter insights, head to Freshwater Strategy’s Data Stream.

Methodology

Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,063 eligible voters in Australia, aged 18+ online, between 17-19 January 2025. Margin of Error +/- 3.1%. Data are weighted to be representative Australian of voters.

Deploying empirical strategies, we shape opinion, manage risk, and identify opportunities in shifting environments to help our clients gain a competitive advantage in commercial and political spheres.

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