The latest The Australian Financial Review / Freshwater Strategy poll shows headline numbers remaining firm, with the Coalition ahead of Labor on a two-party preferred basis.

“While both leaders are campaigning with the stated aim of forming a majority government, the poll shows a Labor-led hung parliament is still very much a possibility” Philip Coorey writes.

Freshwater Strategy conducted the poll of 1,051 eligible voters in Australia between 13-15 December.

Primary Vote

Primary votes are unchanged since November, with Labor on 30 per cent, the Coalition on 40 per cent and the Greens on 14 per cent.

Two-Party Preferred

Labor’s TPP remains at 49%. The ALP are down approx 3.13pts since 2022.

Swings are rarely uniform, but if it was at a Federal election, and these results were replicated, Labor would be reduced from a notional 78 seats to 71, and the Coalition would jump from 57 seats to 67.

Expect to Win

A majority of voters say that they believe that there will be a minority government (56%), whether Coalition-led (29%), or Labor led (25%).

Just under half of voters (47%) expect the Coalition will be able to form a majority (18%) or minority government (29%) after the 2025 Federal Election. Just 39% of voters believe Labor will be able to form a majority (14%) or minority government (25%).

Preferred PM & Approval of Leaders

The proportion of voters who prefer Dutton as Prime Minister is up 1pt since November, but those who prefer Albanese is up 3pts over the same period.

Albanese’s net approval is unchanged at -17. A majority of voters continue to have an unfavourable view of Albanese. Dutton’s net approval has increased by 1pt since November, now -3.

Qualities that apply to each leader

Voters are significantly more likely to say that Anthony Albanese can be described as someone who it “easy to speak to” (43%), and as someone who is “in touch with ordinary people” (35%).

Voters are more likely to say that Peter Dutton is someone who “pays attention to details” (41%), “is a strong leader” (44%), “is a good problem solver” (37%) and “would be good in a crisis” (39%).

Management of Voter Priorities

The Coalition leads Labor as best to respond to three of the top five concerns of Australian voters, including; the cost of living, housing and accommodation and managing the economy.

Labor have leads on health & social care (+4) and the environment (+7).

Read AFR political editor Phil Coorey’s analysis of the poll here and here.

For frequently updated insights on key voter insights, head to Freshwater Strategy’s Data Stream.

Methodology

Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,051 eligible voters in Australia, aged 18+ online, between 13-15 December 2024. Margin of Error +/- 3.1%. Data are weighted to be representative Australian of voters.

Deploying empirical strategies, we shape opinion, manage risk, and identify opportunities in shifting environments to help our clients gain a competitive advantage in commercial and political spheres.

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