The latest AFR / Freshwater Strategy Poll shows cost of living and economic concerns firmly positioned as the key issue for voters heading into the election.

The poll coincides with the start of the last fortnight of parliament for the year and possibly the last sitting before the federal election, should the Prime Minister call an election in early 2025.

Freshwater Strategy conducted the poll of 1,046 voters from Friday, 15 November to Sunday, 17 November.

Primary Vote

Coalition Primary vote drops 1pt to 40%, 10pts ahead of Labor who are on 30%. Greens support is up 1pt to 14%.

Two-Party Preferred

Labor’s TPP has maintained since October at 49%. The ALP are down approx. 3.13pts since 2022.

Swings are rarely uniform, but if it was at a Federal election, based on these results, Labor could be reduced from a notional 78 seats to 70. The Coalition, which starts with 58 seats notionally, could pick up 10.

Preferred PM & Approval of Leaders

The proportion of voters who prefer Dutton as Prime Minister is down 1pt since October, as it is with Albanese, down 1pt.

Albanese’s net approval is down 3pts to -17. A majority of voters now have an unfavourable view of Albanese. Dutton’s net approval has decreased by 2pts since October, now -4.

Issue Agenda

The priorities of voters remain relatively similar to previous months, with the rising cost of living a dominant concern for over three quarters of voters (77%). 42% of voters say that housing and accommodation is a top three priority for the Federal government to focus on, followed by managing the economy (28%) and healthcare (28%).

Management of Voter Priorities

The Coalition leads Labor as best to respond to four of the top five concerns of Australian voters, including; the cost of living, housing and accommodation, managing the economy, and crime & social order. Labor have a small 1pt lead on health & social care.

Read AFR political editor Phil Coorey’s analysis of the poll, here and Canberra Bureau Chief Tom McIlroy’s piece here.

For frequently updated insights on key voter insights, head to Freshwater Strategy’s Data Stream.

Methodology

Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,046 eligible voters in Australia, aged 18+ online, between 15-17 November 2024. Margin of Error +/- 3.1%. Data are weighted to be representative Australian of voters.