The latest AFR / Freshwater Strategy Federal poll underscores the increasing likelihood of a hung parliament after the next Federal election, as cost of living continues to dominate the issue agenda for Australians, closely followed by housing and managing the economy.  

Freshwater Strategy conducted the poll of 1,034 voters from Friday, 18 October to Sunday, 20 October, on the same weekend as the ACT election and three by-elections in NSW.  

Primary Vote

Coalition Primary vote drops 1pt to 41%, 11pts ahead of Labor who are on 30%. Greens’ support is unchanged at 13%. 

Two-Party Preferred

Labor’s TPP has increased by 1pt since September to 49%. The ALP are down approx. 3.13pts since 2022. Swings are rarely uniform, but if it was at a Federal election, based on these results, Labor could be reduced from a notional 78 seats to 70. The Coalition, which starts with 58 seats notionally, could pick up 10.  

Preferred PM & Approval of Leaders

The proportion of voters who choose Dutton as Prime Minister is up 2pts since, with Albanese down 1pt. 

Albanese’s net approval has increased by 1pt to -14. Dutton’s net approval has increased by 2pts since September, to -2. 

Issue Agenda

The priorities of voters remain relatively similar to previous months, with the rising cost of living and deteriorating living standards a dominant concern for just under three quarters voters (72%). 

44% of voters say that housing and accommodation is a top priority for the Federal government to focus on, followed by managing the economy (28%) and healthcare (26%). 

Management of Voter Priorities

The priorities of voters remain relatively similar to previous months, with the rising cost of living and deteriorating living standards a dominant concern for just under three quarters voters (72%). 

44% of voters say that housing and accommodation is a top priority for the Federal government to focus on, followed by managing the economy (28%) and healthcare (26%). 

Read AFR political editor Phil Coorey’s analysis of the poll in today’s paper, here and here.

For frequently updated insights on key voter insights, head to Freshwater Strategy’s Data Stream.

Methodology

Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,034 eligible voters in Australia, aged 18+ online, between 18-20 October 2024. Margin of Error +/- 3.1%. Data are weighted to be representative Australian of voters. 

Deploying empirical strategies, we shape opinion, manage risk, and identify opportunities in shifting environments to help our clients gain a competitive advantage in commercial and political spheres.

Sydney Office

Level 8
4-6 Bligh Street
Sydney, NSW, 2000
Australia

London Office

Level 1
11 Albemarle Street,
London, W1S  4HH

Brisbane Office

Level 6
10 Market Street,
Brisbane, QLD, 4000
Australia

Postal address

PO Box R1806 | Royal Exchange | Sydney, NSW, 1225 | Australia