The latest AFR / Freshwater Strategy Federal poll underscores the increasing likelihood of a hung parliament after the next Federal election, as cost of living continues to dominate the issue agenda for Australians, closely followed by housing and managing the economy.
Freshwater Strategy conducted the poll of 1,034 voters from Friday, 18 October to Sunday, 20 October, on the same weekend as the ACT election and three by-elections in NSW.
Primary Vote
Coalition Primary vote drops 1pt to 41%, 11pts ahead of Labor who are on 30%. Greens’ support is unchanged at 13%.
Two-Party Preferred
Labor’s TPP has increased by 1pt since September to 49%. The ALP are down approx. 3.13pts since 2022. Swings are rarely uniform, but if it was at a Federal election, based on these results, Labor could be reduced from a notional 78 seats to 70. The Coalition, which starts with 58 seats notionally, could pick up 10.
Preferred PM & Approval of Leaders
The proportion of voters who choose Dutton as Prime Minister is up 2pts since, with Albanese down 1pt.
Albanese’s net approval has increased by 1pt to -14. Dutton’s net approval has increased by 2pts since September, to -2.
Issue Agenda
The priorities of voters remain relatively similar to previous months, with the rising cost of living and deteriorating living standards a dominant concern for just under three quarters voters (72%).
44% of voters say that housing and accommodation is a top priority for the Federal government to focus on, followed by managing the economy (28%) and healthcare (26%).
Management of Voter Priorities
The priorities of voters remain relatively similar to previous months, with the rising cost of living and deteriorating living standards a dominant concern for just under three quarters voters (72%).
44% of voters say that housing and accommodation is a top priority for the Federal government to focus on, followed by managing the economy (28%) and healthcare (26%).
Read AFR political editor Phil Coorey’s analysis of the poll in today’s paper, here and here.
For frequently updated insights on key voter insights, head to Freshwater Strategy’s Data Stream.
Methodology
Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,034 eligible voters in Australia, aged 18+ online, between 18-20 October 2024. Margin of Error +/- 3.1%. Data are weighted to be representative Australian of voters.