The Queensland State Election campaign is now officially underway. With just under a month until voters go to the polls, the LNP leads the ALP 56-44 on a two-party preferred basis, according to the latest AFR/Freshwater Strategy Poll.
Key issues for voters include the cost of living, housing and accommodation, and crime and social order, with voters placing greater faith in a Crisafulli-led LNP government as best to respond to these concerns.
Freshwater Strategy conducted the online poll of 1,062 Queensland voters between 26-29 September 2024, for the Financial Review.
Vote Intention
The LNP’s primary vote is up 7pts since the 2020 state election, to 43%, while Labor’s primary vote has fallen by 10pts, to 30%. The Greens primary vote is up by 2pts to 12%, One Nation up by 1pt to 8%, and other minor parties also up 1pt since 2020.
At this time, the LNP leads on a two-party preferred basis, on 56%.
On average, voters who said they would vote for either the LNP or One Nation are more likely to be firmly decided. With Greens supporters and ALP voters less sure about who they will vote for. Voters who said they would vote for independents or other minor parties are even less likely to be locked-in at this stage.
Preferred Premier
David Crisafulli leads Steven Miles comfortably as preferred Premier of Queensland, with a gap of 8pts on 46% of voters. Crisafulli also leads among men and women, and those in Generation X, Boomers, and Post-War Generations. Miles leads among younger voters.
Management of Voter Priorities
The priorities of voters include the cost of living (65%), housing and accommodation (56%), and crime and social order (55%), with over half of voters including these issues in their top three concerns.
Over two fifths of voters view a Crisafulli-led LNP government as best to handle these top issues. Two in five voters also view a Miles-led Labor government as best to handle welfare and benefits (37%) however, this is a lower-order priority for voters with just 7% of voters listing this issue in their top three.
While the cost of living was the top issue across most demographic groups, crime and managing the Queensland economy are among the most important issues for older voters, and those who voted for the LNP at the last election and intend on voting for the LNP at the next.
The cost of living was the greatest issue for Gen Z and Millennial voters.
The environment was among the most important issues for Greens voters, while crime and social order has become even more important for today’s One Nation voters when compared to those who voted for the party in 2020.
Read AFR political editor Phil Coorey’s analysis of the poll in today’s paper here.
For frequently updated insights on key voter insights, head to Freshwater Strategy’s Data Stream.
Methodology
Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,062 eligible voters in Queensland, aged 18+ online, between 26-29 September 2024. Margin of Error +/- 3.5%. Data are weighted to be representative of Queensland voters.
