Ahead of the Queensland State Election on October 26, the latest AFR/Freshwater Strategy Poll shows the Liberal National Party, led by David Crisafulli, on track to defeat three-term Queensland Labor Government, led by drop-in Premier Steven Miles.

As with the most recent AFR/Freshwater Strategy Federal Poll, the cost of living is the number one concern among Queenslanders, cited by 68 per cent of those who polled.

Freshwater Strategy conducted the online poll of 1,062 Queensland voters between 26-29 September 2024.

Primary Vote

The LNP leads with the highest share of the Primary vote share on 43%, up 7pts on the 2020 state election result, and up 3pts since July 2023. Labor has continued their decline, down 10pts since 2020, and 4pts since July 2023.

Two-Party Preferred

Labor has continued its decline on a two-party preferred basis, now down 9pts on its 2020 result, and 5pts since July 2023.

Preferred Premier

Crisafulli leads Miles as preferred Premier by 8pts among Queensland voters, while 16% are undecided.

Issue Agenda

The cost and standard of living (68%) is the top priority issue among Queensland voters at this time, followed by housing (56%), and crime (55%).

Topical Issues

Over four in ten (44%) Queensland voters have been exposed to the effects of crime in the past 12 months, being either personally affected (12%), or with someone they know (32%) affected by crime.

Management of Voter Priorities

Labor is seen as better able to respond on issues relating to welfare (Net +7) and the environment (+2), while the LNP leads on all other issues, particularly those high on voters’ agenda such as the cost of living (-9) and crime (-27).

Read Queensland correspondent, James Hall’s exclusive article in the AFR here, and Phil Coorey’s political analysis of the upcoming election here.

For frequently updated insights on key voter insights, head to Freshwater Strategy’s Data Stream.

Methodology

Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,062 eligible voters in Queensland, aged 18+ online, between 26-29 September 2024. Margin of Error +/- 3.5% for topline results. Data are weighted to be representative of Queensland voters.