As the cost of living continues to weigh heavily on Labor’s approval with voters, the Coalition has expanded its lead in key areas such as managing the economy, taxation, and government spending, according to the latest AFR/Freshwater Strategy Poll.

Both major political party leaders have seen a decline in net approval ratings since August 2024, reflecting a distinct lack of optimism among the public – particularly mortgage holders and renters.

Freshwater Strategy conducted the online poll of 1,057 Australian voters between 13-15 September 2024.

Primary Vote

The Coalition’s primary vote is up 1pt since August on 42%, while Labor’s primary vote has decreased 2pts since August. The Greens Primary vote is up by 1pt to (13%), with minor parties unchanged.

Two-Party Preferred

Labor’s TPP vote share has declined by 1pt since August to 48%. This is down around 4.1pts on the 2022 result. Swings are rarely uniform, but if there was a uniform swing at a Federal election, based on these results, the Coalition which starts with a notional 58 seats, would be somewhere closer to 70 seats and Labor’s notional seat count of 78 would fall to 65.

Preferred PM & Approval of Leaders

The proportion of voters who choose Albanese or Dutton as preferred PM is unchanged since August. Albanese’s net approval has decreased 5pts to -15. Dutton’s net approval has decreased by 1pt since August, on -4, 9pts more net favourable than Albanese.

Management of Voter Priorities

The priorities of voters remain relatively similar to previous months, with the rising cost of living and deteriorating living standards a dominant concern for just under three quarters of voters (74%).

42% of voters say that housing and accommodation is a top priority for the Federal government to focus on, followed by healthcare (27%) and managing the economy (27%).

Albanese and Labor has lost ground with the public on management of the cost of living (down 7pts to -14), also on managing the economy (down 3pts to -16).

Read AFR political editor Phil Coorey’s analysis of the poll in today’s paper, here and here.

For frequently updated insights on key voter insights, head to Freshwater Strategy’s Data Stream.

Methodology

Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,057 eligible voters in Australia, aged 18+ online, between 13-15 September 2024. Margin of Error +/- 3.1%. Data are weighted to be representative Australian of voters.