The latest Australian Financial Review/Freshwater Strategy poll indicates a deepening pessimism among voters, who are increasingly concerned about the country’s direction and doubtful about the prospects for economic improvement.
With the election no more than 278 days away, the Coalition holds a 51-49 two-party preferred lead over Labor for the second successive month. Despite this narrow margin, support for both major parties remains insufficient to indicate a clear pathway to majority government.
Freshwater Strategy conducted the online poll of 1,061 eligible Australian voters between Friday 16 August and Sunday 18 August, coinciding with the conclusion of parliament’s first week back after the winter break.
Primary Vote
The Labor Party’s primary vote is up 1pt since July on 32%, while the Coalition’s primary vote has increased 1pt since July.
The Greens Primary vote is down by 1pt, with minor parties down 1pt.
TPP
Labor’s TPP vote share has remained unchanged since July to 49%. This is down around 3.2pts on the 2022 result. Swings are rarely uniform, but if there was a uniform swing at a Federal election, based on these results, Labor’s notional seat count of 78 would fall to 71.
Preferred PM & Approval of Leaders
The proportion of voters who choose Albanese as preferred PM is unchanged since July, while Dutton has increased 2pts to 41%, 4pts short of Albanese.
Albanese’s net approval has increased 4pts to -10. Dutton’s net approval has remained steady since July, on -3, 7pts more favourable than Albanese.
Management of Voter Priorities
Labor continue to lose ground with public perception of taxation and government spending (down 4pts to -14), defence (down 6pts to -20), and immigration (down 4pts to -17).
Labor make up ground on the cost of living (up 5pts to -7), the environment (+3 to +11), managing the economy (+3 to -13), and strikes (+3 to +2).
Gambling Advertising
While an overwhelming majority of Australian voters do not enjoy watching advertising for sports betting (85%), a clear majority of those who bet on sports regularly say that they do (58%).
The overwhelming majority of those who currently or used to engage in sports betting (72%) opt for less restrictive gambling ad changes. Most current or former gamblers opt for restricting sports betting adverting to periods outside children’s programming (35%).
There is strongest support for limiting advertising to 2 every hour until 10pm, with a ban during children’s programming and live sport (Net +54). While a majority (50%) support a blanket ban, a similar proportion (46%) also say that they support allowing sports betting advertising but with clearer warning messages.
Read AFR political editor Phil Coorey’s analysis of the poll in today’s paper, here and here.
For frequently updated insights on key voter insights, head to Freshwater Strategy’s Data Stream.
Methodology Note
Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,061 eligible voters in Australia, aged 18+ online, between 16-18 August 2024. Margin of Error +/- 3.1%. Data are weighted to be representative Australian of voters.
