The latest AFR / Freshwater Strategy poll underscores a shift in voter sentiment, marking the first instance since the last federal election where the Coalition has gained a lead in the popular vote.

Voter priorities remain similar to those identified in the June AFR / Freshwater poll, with the rising cost of living a dominant concern, closely followed by housing and accommodation concerns.

The poll of 1,003 eligible Australian voters was conducted online between Friday to Sunday, 307 days before the latest possible date for the next Federal election.

Primary Vote

The Labor Party’s primary vote has declined by 1 point to 31%, while the Coalition’s primary vote is unchanged since June. The Greens Primary vote is unchanged, with minor parties rising by 1.

Preferred Prime Minister

The proportion of voters who choose Albanese as preferred PM has increased 2pts since June, to 45%, Dutton has declined 2pts to 39%, 4pts short of Albanese.

Approval of Leaders

Albanese’s net approval has fallen 2pts to -14. Dutton’s net approval has risen 2pts from June, on -3, now more favourable than Albanese.

Two Party Preferred

Labor’s TPP vote share has dropped 1pt since June to 49%. This is down around 3.2pts on the 2022 result.

While swings are rarely uniform, the 3.2 per cent swing against Labor a 51-49 outcome would deliver, if run uniformly down the electoral pendulum, would mean a loss of seven seats, leaving it with 71.

Management of Voter Priorities

Labor continues to lose ground with public perception of their economic management (down 2pts to -16) and keeping the cost of living low (down 3pts to -12). Labor makes up ground on the environment (up 3pts to +8), health and social care (up 2pts to +5) and welfare and benefits (up 3pts to +13).

The Coalition’s lead over Labor as best to manage the cost and standard of living is highest since 2022 (12pts), having shifted by 24pts.

Read AFR political editor Phil Coorey’s analysis of the poll in today’s paper, here and here.

For frequently updated insights on key voter insights, head to Freshwater Strategy’s Data Stream.

Methodology Note

Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,003 eligible voters in Australia, aged 18+ online, between 19-21 July 2024. Margin of Error +/- 3.1%. Data are weighted to be representative Australian of voters.