With the next Federal Election less than 341 days away, the latest Australian Financial Review / Freshwater Strategy poll highlights a narrowing gap in approval ratings between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.
“While the parties remain tied at 50 per cent apiece on a two party-preferred basis, and their primary votes haven’t shifted, Labor’s lead over the Coalition as the party best able to handle climate change has plunged by 8 points since the last poll a month ago” reports Phil Coorey in the AFR.
Freshwater Strategy conducted the poll of 1060 Australian voters between 14th and 16th June 2024. Margin of error is approximately +/- 3% for topline results.
Vote Intentions and Leadership
Primary Vote
Both the Labor Party’s and the Coalition’s primary vote is unchanged since May.
The Greens Primary vote has declined by 1 point to 13%, with minor parties rising by 1.
Preferred PM
The proportion of voters who choose Albanese as preferred PM has declined 3pts since May, to 43%, Dutton has risen 4pts to 41%, just 2pts short of Albanese.
Albanese’s net approval has fallen 3pts to -12. Dutton’s net approval has risen 4pts from may, on -5, now more favourable than Albanese.
Two Party Preferred
Labor’s TPP vote share remains unchanged at 50%. This is down around 2.2pts on the 2022 result.
Swings are rarely uniform, but if there was a uniform swing at a Federal election, based on these results, it would result in in a Labor-minority government with the government on 73 seats, down from its current notional tally of 77 seats. The Coalition would rise from 58 seats to 63 seats.
Outlook, voter priorities and their management
Management of Voter Priorities
Labor has declined across the board on management for key voter priorities.
The largest movements towards away from Labor are on managing; the environment & climate change (down 8pts to +5), the cost & standard of living (down 6pts to -9) and Strikes & union-led industrial action (up 6pts to -11).
Read AFR political editor Phil Coorey’s analysis of the poll here, and here.
For frequently updated insights on key voter insights, head to Freshwater Strategy’s Data Stream.
Methodology Note
Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,060 eligible voters in Australia, aged 18+ online, between 14-16 June 2024. Margin of Error +/- 3.3%. Data are weighted to be representative Australian of voters.
