AFR / Freshwater Strategy Poll: 2024 Federal Budget

In the week of Albanese’s Federal Budget announcement, the latest AFR / Freshwater Strategy federal poll reveals minimal impact on Labor’s political standing despite a majority of voters saying they believe the budget will have no difference to their household finances.

The Federal Budget comes at a time when the rising cost of living and deteriorating living standards have dominated voter concern for several consecutive months now.

Vote Intentions, Priorities and Leadership

Two Party Preferred Vote

Labor’s two party preferred vote share remains unchanged at 50%. This is down around 2pts on the 2022 Federal election result.

You can find a live updated version of Freshwater’s Poll of Polls on our new Data Stream here.

Primary Vote  

Labor’s Primary vote is up 1pt post-budget (now 32%), while the Coalition is unchanged on 40%. The Greens Primary vote has risen 1 point to 14%.

Preferred Prime Minister

The proportion of voters who choose Albanese as preferred Prime Minister, rises 1pt since April, to 46%, declines 2pts for Dutton to 37%.

Management of Voter Priorities  

Labor has made recoveries on being best to respond to several key issues, including; managing the economy (up 4pts to -10), crime and social order (up 8pts to -9) and immigration and asylum (up 4pts to -13).

Post Budget Voter Feedback

Effect of Federal Budget on Household Finances

Just one quarter of voters (24%) say they believe their household finances will improve as a result of Budget24. A similar proportion (23%) say that they believe they will be worse off.

Planned Use of Cost-of-Living Relief

While one third (35%) say that they plan to save the additional cost of living relief they will receive from Budget24.

A similar proportion (33%) say that they plan to pay down debt with it, one fifth (20%) say they plan to spend it on the things they usually buy.

7% say that they plan to invest it, and just 6% say that they plan to spend it on things that they might not have bought otherwise.

Effect of Federal Budget on Interest Rates

Two in five voters (39%) say that they believe the recent Federal budget will increase the chance of another rate rise from the RBA.

Responsibility for Budget Surplus

When asked who they felt was responsible for delivering the current strength of the Federal budget, 42% said royalties from the mining, gas and agricultural export industries.

Just over one third (37%) attributed it to the current Labor government, and just over one fifth (21%) to the previous Coalition government.

One third (32%) said increased tax paid by workers and consumers.

Read AFR political editor Phil Coorey’s analysis of the poll in today’s paper here, and here.

Methodology Note

Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,056 eligible voters in Australia, aged 18+ online, between 17-19 May 2024. Margin of Error +/- 3.3%. Data are weighted to be representative Australian of voters.

Deploying empirical strategies, we shape opinion, manage risk, and identify opportunities in shifting environments to help our clients gain a competitive advantage in commercial and political spheres.

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