Exclusive: Freshwater Strategy polling on ‘The Voice’ for Sky News

Awareness and information
Exclusive Freshwater Strategy polling for Sky News shows that around three quarters of voters (75%) now say that they are aware that a referendum on establishing an Indigenous Voice to Parliament in the Australian constitution is set to take place. This is 12pts since December 2022.

 
 

When asked if they thought that they had enough information to make an informed decision about how they will vote, around half of voters (49%) say that they do not have sufficient information, and need more.

Of those who are undecided about how they will vote, just 9% say that they have sufficient information to make an informed decision, as do nearly four in ten (39%) ‘Yes’ voters.

Over the last four months, there has only been a 2 point increase in the share of voters who say they have sufficient information to make an informed decision.

 
 

Referendum vote intentions
Support for The Voice has declined significantly since December, by more than 8pts. Opposition has also risen by 8pts. After 'squeezing' undecided voters, this leads to a 9pt change in the headline figure, with 'Yes' on 56% of the vote across Australia.

However, the Yes camp still has a referendum-winning lead at this time, attracting majority support in all states except Queensland (45%).

 
 

Although headline vote intention figures for an Indigenous Voice to Parliament are high, the vote is ‘softer’ than headline figures suggest.

Since December 2022, there has been little change in vote ‘softness’ for 'Yes'. The share of voters saying “I could change my mind” has declined 4pts from 11% to 7%, most of whom are currently supporting 'Yes'.

Trend analysis of all published polls over the last year shows that support for an Indigenous Voice to Parliament has steadily declined.

 
 

Methodology and contact
Freshwater Strategy interviewed a representative sample of 1,002 adults eligible to vote living in Australia, online, on 9-12 April 2023. Data are weighted. The margin of error for top-line results is +/- 3%.

For comment, additional analysis, or a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, please get in touch.

Email: polling@freshwaterstrategy.com

 

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