AFR/FWS Polling: Labor on path to form government in NSW

Labor is on course to form a government at the upcoming NSW state election, according to the latest Australian Financial Review / Freshwater Strategy NSW Poll.

NSW Labor leader Chris Minns has substantially narrowed Premier Dominic Perrottet’s lead as preferred Premier, giving Labor an election winning boost ahead of this Saturday’s state poll.

Four days from the New South Wales State election, Labor have raised their primary vote by 4pts, while the primary vote for Liberals and Nationals has dropped around 5pts since 2019. The Greens primary vote remains unchanged on 10%.


Around 13% of voters say that they are not likely to give a primary vote or preference to either Labor or Coalition candidate, meaning their vote will exhaust.

Heading into the final days of the campaign, NSW Labor leads the NSW Liberals and Nationals on a two-party preferred basis, by 53 to 47 in the Latest AFR / Freshwater Strategy NSW Poll, with the momentum behind Labor and their leader, Chris Minns, in the final days of the campaign.


The survey of 1,100 NSW voters, conducted from March 19-21, also shows that Chris Minns has substantially narrowed Dominic Perrottet’s lead as preferred premier, with the proportion of voters who say that they would prefer Minns as Premier rising 6 points during campaign, now trailing Perrottet by just 40% to 45%.


Methodology statement

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