Labor slides, but still ahead in Victoria

Freshwater Strategy conducts a poll of Victorian voters for The Australian Financial Review three weeks out from election day. Results are presented below.

Vote intentions

The AFR / Freshwater Strategy Victoria poll, conducted 3-6 November, puts Dan Andrews’ Labor Party on a Primary vote of 37%, down 6pts since 2018.

The Coalition (Liberals and Nationals) Primary vote is down 1pt since 2018, to 34%. The Greens are up 3pts to 14%. Support for an Independent candidate is up 1pt to 7%.

Around one in seven voters (16%) said that they are open to changing their mind before the election, which is just three weeks away.

On a two-party preferred basis, Labor achieves 51%, the Liberals and Nationals on 40%. Excluding those who said that they were firmly undecided (9%), places Labor on 56%, down more than 1pt since 2018.

On a uniform state-wide swing^, these results suggest that, if the election were today, Labor would lose approximately 3-5 seats, but still able to form a majority government in their own right.

However, with around one in six voters (16%) open to changing their mind before then (Swing Voters), there is still a lot to play for in the remaining three weeks of the campaign.

There are easily enough votes up for grabs for the Coalition to snatch majority government away from Andrews and his Labor Party, or for Labor to press their advantage even further.

Agenda and defining election issue

When asked what they thought the most important issues facing Victoria at this time were, three quarters of voters (74%) said the cost and standard of living. This is followed by health and social care (48%), and then managing the Victorian economy (38%).

Leadership and approval

On a net basis, Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy poll less favourably than their respective state political parties. The Victorian Labor Party polls relatively positively, with a net favourability of +10, compared to the Victorian Liberal Party’s -6.

Andrews has a net favourability of -9, 7pts higher than Matthew Guy who polls least favourably, on -16.

When asked who they would prefer to be Premier of Victoria, 40% chose current Premier Daniel Andrews, and just 28% chose Liberal leader Matthew Guy. 25% chose neither candidate.

For Andrews and Victorian Labor, voters’ biggest concerns centre his handling of the pandemic and the severity of lockdowns in Victoria (12%), as well as the sense that Andrews comes across as dishonest, too secretive and opaque in the way that he communicates with voters (11%). Many voters also say that they are concerned about the government’s financial management, in particular the level and quality of government spending (11%).

An article by The Australian Financial Review, featuring these results, can be found here.

Freshwater Strategy interviewed a representative sample of 1,012 adults eligible to vote living in Victoria, online, on 3-6 November 2022. Data are weighted. The margin of error for top-line results is +/- 3%.

For comment, additional analysis, or a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, please get in touch.


^Uniform state swing (USS) calculated using the latest electoral pendulum on post-redistributed districts

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